Because the real shift is not "audio versus video". It is that the word podcast is splitting into two different products. One is the open, RSS-based medium we have known for two decades. The other is an on-platform, screen-native show that looks like a podcast, talks like a podcast, but behaves like streaming content.

If you want to predict where podcasting is going in 2026, start there. The split explains almost everything else that is happening. Awards. Netflix. Spotify. YouTube. Corporate "internal podcasts". Even the way episodes are structured to survive distracted mobile brains.

Let me show you the signals, then the predictions. Not in a tech-obsessed way. In a "what will this do to the craft" way.

Signal One — The Golden Globes Just Legitimised Podcasting, And That Changes The Incentives

In January 2026, the Golden Globes introduced a Best Podcast category and awarded the inaugural trophy to Good Hang with Amy Poehler.

You can roll your eyes at celebrity podcasting. I sometimes do. But awards do one thing exceptionally well. They change what funders, platforms and agents consider "worth it".

Prediction for 2026 — More Podcasts Will be Built Like Prestige TV.

Not just "better audio quality". The deeper shift is structural.

  • more limited series with clear season arcs and a real ending
  • more "campaignable" packaging. A defined premise, a strong logline, a trailer that feels like a film trailer, and
  • more aggressive PR cycles around launches. Press, clips, guest strategy and the kind of narrative around the show that makes it award-friendly.

This is good news if you care about craft. It is also dangerous, because awards can tempt creators into polishing the life out of a show. The best podcasts still feel human. They still breathe.

Signal Two — Netflix is Now Treating Podcasts Like Shows, Not Feeds

Netflix has published a help page that basically says: Search "podcast". Visit the podcast hub. Podcasts appear like shows and movies on Netflix.

That one paragraph matters more than a hundred hot takes. Netflix is not thinking in RSS. Netflix is thinking in catalogue. In discovery. In retention. In "keep them watching another 20 minutes".

On top of that, Netflix is not only licensing video podcasts. It is commissioning originals. In January 2026, Netflix launched its first original video podcasts (including a Pete Davidson show).

And the distribution deals are not subtle. Reuters reported that Netflix will carry selected Spotify video podcasts in early 2026. Netflix and iHeartMedia also announced an exclusive video podcast partnership, with new episodes launching on Netflix in early 2026 in the United States, with more markets to follow.

Prediction for 2026 — "Podcasting" Becomes a Streaming Format Category

This has three practical consequences:

  • Platform-first shows will grow. A show can be called a podcast while living inside Netflix without an RSS feed, in the same way a "series" lives inside Netflix without you downloading MP4 files.
  • Exclusivity and windowing will increase. Full video episode on Netflix first. Clips on YouTube later. Audio available widely, or sometimes not. You will see more complicated release strategies because platforms will pay for exclusivity.
  • The definition fight will get louder. Purists will insist "that's not a podcast". Audiences will not care. Audiences already call anything with hosts and episodes "a podcast".

If you are a creator, the question becomes less philosophical. It becomes tactical. Are you building an open-media asset you own, or are you building platform-native content you rent space for.

Signal Three — YouTube is Already the Dominant Podcast Platform for Many Listeners

A lot of people still talk about YouTube as if it is something you do after you have "a real podcast".

Edison Research's Infinite Dial 2025 reported that YouTube is the service used most often to listen to podcasts, with 33% of United States weekly podcast listeners using it. It also reported that 48% of Americans aged 12 and up have both listened to and watched a podcast.

Google is also quietly making RSS part of YouTube Music. You can add podcasts to your YouTube Music library using RSS feeds.

Prediction for 2026 — "Audio-Only" Will Remain Powerful, But Discovery Will Keep Drifting Toward Screens

The problem is not that people suddenly hate audio. Audio is still the best medium when your eyes are busy. Driving. Walking. Cooking. Living.

The problem is where people find new shows.

The platforms that are winning discovery are the ones with recommendation engines built for video and engagement loops. If your show does not exist in those environments, you are asking new audiences to take extra steps. Audiences rarely do extra steps.

This is why 2026 will be full of "video podcasts" that are, frankly, just filmed Zoom calls. People are chasing discovery, not designing a visual experience. That will separate the amateurs from the professionals very quickly.

Signal Four — Spotify is Building a Creator Business Model Around Video

On January 7, 2026, Spotify announced updates that make it easier for video podcasters to earn. It expanded eligibility thresholds for the Spotify Partner Program and added more flexible sponsorship management for video.

This is an important sign. Spotify is not only distributing podcasts. It is building a creator economy with payouts, ad tools and sponsorship management baked into the platform.

Prediction for 2026 — Monetisation Will start Shaping Format Decisions More Directly

If a platform pays you more reliably for video engagement, creators will adapt their shows to keep people watching, not only listening.

That does not mean everything becomes shouty and shallow. It means structure becomes tighter.

  • stronger cold opens
  • more "here's what you're getting today" in the first minute
  • more deliberate segment breaks that translate into clips, and
  • more visual beats. Not gimmicks. Beats.

Signal Five — Transcripts are no Longer Optional. They Are Part of the Product

Apple introduced transcripts for Apple Podcasts in iOS 17.4, with auto-generated transcripts and support for creator-provided transcripts via RSS tags.

This is not just an accessibility upgrade. It is a discoverability upgrade.

Transcripts make your audio searchable. Quotable. Indexable. They turn a podcast episode into a text asset as well as an audio asset.

Prediction for 2026 — The "Podcast Episode" Becomes a Content Bundle

Audio. Video. Transcript. Clips. Highlights. Newsletter excerpt. Blog post. Maybe even an internal training module.

The winners are not the creators who do everything. They are the creators who design the show so repurposing is natural. If your episode is one long ramble, turning it into useful assets is painful. If your episode has structure, the assets almost generate themselves.

Signal Six — Corporate Podcasts are Moving From "Nice Idea" to "Serious Channel"

Internal company podcasts used to sound like a novelty. Now they are showing up in places you would not expect, including investor communications.

The Financial Times reported that the London Stock Exchange Group is collaborating with Auddy to offer encrypted podcast distribution for shareholder communications.

That is not a quirky brand experiment. That is infrastructure.

Prediction for 2026 — Private Podcasting Will Expand. Employee Comms, Shareholder Updates, Training, Onboarding, Compliance And Leadership Communication

Why audio works inside organisations is simple. It is intimate. It feels human. It reaches non-desk workers. It reduces the "another email from leadership" fatigue.

The next step is measurement. Private podcast platforms and encrypted feeds allow companies to see who listened, for how long and what content actually landed.

If you run a production business, this is a serious opportunity. It is also a different skill set. Corporate podcasts fail when they sound like internal memos read aloud. They succeed when they are made like real shows.

The Attention Problem — Why 2026 Structure Will Get Sharper

Now we get to your point about mobile use and attention deficits.

People are not becoming "less intelligent". They are becoming more interrupted. Notifications. Tabs. Algorithmic feeds. A constant low-grade tug on attention.

So creators will adapt, even when they claim they hate what TikTok has done to culture.

You can already see the direction in platform behaviour and forecasts. Deloitte predicts global podcast and vodcast advertising revenues will reach roughly USD$5-billion in 2026, up nearly 20% year-on-year. When money flows into video podcasting at that scale, format evolves to fit the consumption reality.

Prediction for 2026 — Longform Survives, But it gets More Navigable

Consider the likely structural shifts:

  • Front-load value. Not clickbait. Just clarity.
  • Build chapters into the episode. Even if you do not announce them out loud, design for them.
  • Segment for clipping. A segment should be able to live on its own in a 60 to 120 second highlight.
  • Use repetition intelligently. Quick recaps are not "dumbing down". They are re-entry points for distracted listeners.
  • Treat silence as a tool. Not filler. A beat can reset attention in audio better than any graphic ever will.

This is where audio still has an unfair advantage over bad video.

A well-made audio documentary or audio drama can hold attention in a way a static talking-head video cannot. It can create cinema in the mind. It can do what we try to do in projects like Blood in the Dust. Sound carries story. It carries emotion. It carries place.

The irony of 2026 is that the rise of video will make truly great audio feel even more special. The market will be flooded with "bad television". Which means the creators who understand sound will stand out.

So What Should Creators do in 2026?

I am not going to give you a 27-point checklist. You will ignore it, and I do not blame you.

Here are the decisions that actually matter:

  • Choose your lane. Open podcasting (RSS-first) versus platform-native show (Netflix, Spotify video, YouTube-first). You can do both, but only if you plan it properly.
  • Design for repurposing. If you want clips and transcripts and posts, structure the episode so those pieces exist naturally.
  • If you do video, make it earn its place. Lighting, framing, set, visual storytelling, or at least visual clarity. If the picture adds nothing, you are making bad television.
  • Invest in the human part. Voice, pacing, story and emotional truth. Awards, platforms and monetisation tools change. Human attention is still captured by meaning.

Podcasting is not dying. It is mutating. In 2026, the big question is not whether podcasting will grow. It will. The question is whether you are building something you own, or something that owns you.

For more information, visit www.baird.media. You can also follow Baird Media on LinkedIn.

*Image courtesy of contributor