If the past few years have taught South African importers anything, it's this: uncertainty is the new normal. The question isn't whether disruption will happen, but whether businesses are built to handle it.
Global trade has shifted from predictable to volatile, with every part of the logistics chain feeling the strain — from geopolitical tensions and tariffs to local power cuts and port delays, says Investec.
According to Vernon Sinden, Head of Logistics at Investec, the answer is yes, but only if the right foundations are in place. "Agility and supplier resilience aren't just nice to have anymore. They're survival tools."
Despite the challenges facing Transnet, which reported a R1.9-billion loss for the year ending March 2025 (an improvement from previous periods), there is a silver lining. The support from the government, including R94.8-billion in state guarantees, aims to showcase the commitment to strengthening South Africa's logistics infrastructure. This investment hopes to be a positive sign that the logistics backbone is being reinforced, providing a platform for future growth, adds Investec.
"In this environment, the businesses that will endure are those that recognise agility and supplier resilience as their most valuable assets," says Sinden. "It's no longer enough to manage suppliers on a transactional basis. The companies that thrive are those that treat suppliers as strategic allies, partners who can provide priority access, flexibility and creative problem-solving when disruption inevitably strikes."
Identifying early warning signs of disruption is critical. Key indicators like supplier lead times, shipping reliability and inventory turnover rates are often the first clues that cracks are forming in the supply chain, says Investec.
"The lesson here is simple: don't wait for a full-blown crisis to act. If shipments from a certain region consistently slip, it's time to diversify or renegotiate — before the costs escalate."
Consumer behaviour adds another layer of complexity. Market research from NetZero shows South Africans are increasingly price-sensitive and shifting online, which intensifies pressure on stock management, adds Investec.
"Overstocking eats into margins, understocking risks customer loyalty. The result? Importers are being forced to invest in smarter systems and forecasting tools to synchronise demand with supply and optimise stock levels," adds Sinden.
"But tools alone aren't enough. Crisis management is as much about mindset as it is about data. Resilient importers need a posture of flexibility, holding buffer stock where necessary and meeting suppliers halfway — in negotiation, in logistics and sometimes quite literally on the ground. Open lines of communication, regular check-ins and transparency around challenges transform relationships from fragile to formidable."
"The reality is that resilience in South Africa isn't a corporate cliché. It's a survival strategy. Importers who cultivate suppliers as strategic allies — not just vendors — will be best positioned to turn disruption into opportunity. In a trade environment where uncertainty is guaranteed, strong supplier relationships and logistics partners with buying power remain one of the few advantages businesses can control," concludes Sinden.
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*Image courtesy of contributor